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伦敦金融城主席:近期股市波动给中国提供经验

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月24日 06:10:48
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(  伦)(敦)(金)(融)(城)(主)(席)(:近)(期)(股)(市)(波)(动)(给)(中)(国)(提)(供)(经)(验)(
  周)(艾)(琳)(
  经)(历)(了)(此)(轮)(A股)(巨)(震)(,对)(中)(国)(而)(言)(,恐)(怕)(什)(么)(也)(比)(不)(上)(“稳)(”字)(来)(得)(重)(要)(。政)(界)(、学)(界)(此)(前)(便)(对)(资)(本)(账)(户)(开)(放)(所)(存)(在)(的)(风)(险)(意)(见)(不)(一)(,此)(刻)(动)(荡)(的)(A股)(或)(会)(拖)(累)(开)(放)(进)(程)(。
  “中)(国)(政)(府)(应)(该)(严)(密)(监)(控)(全)(球)(趋)(势)(,但)(就)(英)(国)(的)(开)(放)(经)(验)(而)(言)(,越)(开)(放)(,极)(端)(波)(动)(性)(出)(现)(的)(频)(率)(就)(越)(低)(。”伦)(敦)(金)(融)(城)(政)(府)(政)(策)(与)(资)(源)(委)(员)(会)(主)(席)(包)(墨)(凯)((MarkBoleat)在)(接)(受)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(采)(访)(时)(表)(示)(。
  连)(日)(来)(,监)(管)(层)(救)(市)(举)(动)(频)(频)(。包)(默)(凯)(表)(示)(,监)(管)(层)(无)(法)(决)(定)(最)(终)(市)(场)(动)(向)(。“因)(此)(,不)(能)(只)(看)(一)(两)(天)(的)(短)(期)(状)(况)(。就)(长)(期)(而)(言)(,仍)(很)(难)(评)(判)(是)(否)(真)(的)(会)(导)(致)(市)(场)(化)(进)(程)(放)(缓)(。”
  包)(墨)(凯)(对)(于)(中)(国)(股)(市)(仍)(较)(为)(乐)(观)(。他)(表)(示)(,“近)(期)(股)(市)(波)(动)(对)(中)(国)(也)(是)(经)(验)(教)(训)(,要)(实)(时)(谨)(记)(股)(市)(并)(非)(只)(升)(不)(跌)(。当)(然)(,A股)(至)(今)(已)(从)(低)(位)(实)(现)(了)(30%的)(涨)(幅)(,这)(仍)(然)(十)(分)(可)(观)(。随)(着)(此)(后)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(增)(加)(、体)(量)(扩)(大)(,波)(动)(性)(会)(越)(来)(越)(小)(。希)(望)(近)(期)(的)(震)(荡)(是)(修)(正)(,而)(不)(会)(影)(响)(市)(场)(的)(长)(期)(走)(势)(。”
  此)(外)(,本)(报)(记)(者)(向)(多)(方)(国)(内)(专)(家)(了)(解)(所)(知)(,受)(到)(股)(市)(暴)(跌)(的)(影)(响)(,改)(革)(可)(能)(都)(会)(为)(稳)(定)(经)(济)(来)(服)(务)(,因)(此)(开)(放)(进)(程)(或)(将)(慢)(于)(预)(期)(,但)(这)(仍)(将)(取)(决)(于)(市)(场)(的)(下)(一)(步)(走)(势)(。
  招)(商)(银)(行)(总)(行)(金)(融)(市)(场)(部)(高)(级)(分)(析)(师)(刘)(东)(亮)(告)(诉)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(:“利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(进)(程)(已)(接)(近)(完)(成)(,按)(照)(之)(前)(的)(监)(管)(层)(公)(开)(表)(态)(,要)(加)(速)(推)(进)(人)(民)(币)(资)(本)(项)(下)(可)(兑)(换)(。不)(过)(就)(当)(前)(看)(来)(,汇)(率)(市)(场)(化)(、资)(本)(账)(户)(开)(放)(的)(时)(间)(表)(可)(能)(会)(有)(所)(推)(迟)(。”
  以)(合)(格)(境)(内)(个)(人)(投)(资)(者)(境)(外)(投)(资)((QDII2)为)(例)(,2015年)(以)(来)(,市)(场)(上)(关)(于)(即)(将)(开)(启)(QDII2的)(消)(息)(不)(断)(出)(现)(,不)(过)(在)(近)(期)(举)(行)(的)(2015年)(陆)(家)(嘴)(论)(坛)(上)(,各)(方)(并)(未)(如)(预)(期)(等)(来)(这)(一)(好)(消)(息)(。
  另)(外)(,值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(是)(,中)(国)(此)(后)(要)(以)(何)(种)(方)(式)(来)(推)(进)(资)(本)(账)(户)(开)(放)(?是)(按)(照)(利)(率)(、汇)(率)(市)(场)(化)(再)(到)(资)(本)(账)(户)(开)(放)(的)(“三)(步)(走)(”顺)(序)(,还)(是)(“成)(熟)(一)(项)(、推)(进)(一)(项)(”的)(协)(调)(推)(进)(方)(式)(?
  一)(直)(以)(来)(,理)(论)(界)(占)(主)(导)(地)(位)(的)(是)(“先)(内)(后)(外)(”的)(金)(融)(改)(革)(理)(论)(,即)(必)(须)(首)(先)(完)(成)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(,再)(完)(成)(汇)(率)(形)(成)(机)(制)(改)(革)(,然)(后)(再)(开)(放)(资)(本)(账)(户)(,最)(后)(才)(是)(本)(币)(国)(际)(化)(。
  其)(理)(论)(基)(础)(则)(是)(国)(际)(经)(济)(学)(的)(经)(典)(支)(柱)(“蒙)(代)(尔)(三)(角)(理)(论)(”,即)(固)(定)(汇)(率)(、货)(币)(政)(策)(独)(立)(性)(和)(资)(本)(自)(由)(流)(动)(,三)(角)(只)(能)(取)(两)(个)(。因)(此)(,各)(界)(判)(断)(,如)(果)(利)(率)(、汇)(率)(没)(有)(市)(场)(化)(、利)(率)(处)(于)(高)(位)(,这)(时)(开)(放)(资)(本)(账)(户)(是)(很)(危)(险)(的)(,因)(为)(外)(资)(会)(大)(量)(流)(入)(而)(引)(起)(利)(率)(、汇)(率)(波)(动)(,且)(市)(场)(无)(法)(实)(现)(自)(动)(调)(节)(。
  不)(过)(,央)(行)(调)(查)(统)(计)(司)(司)(长)(盛)(松)(成)(也)(在)(其)(《金)(融)(改)(革)(协)(调)(推)(进)(论)(》一)(书)(中)(,将)(“成)(熟)(一)(项)(、推)(进)(一)(项)(”的)(协)(调)(推)(进)(观)(点)(阐)(述)(得)(十)(分)(明)(确)(。
  盛)(松)(成)(认)(为)(,“先)(内)(后)(外)(”的)(观)(点)(不)(适)(合)(中)(国)(国)(情)(。只)(有)(协)(调)(推)(进)(各)(项)(金)(融)(改)(革)(,才)(能)(减)(少)(金)(融)(体)(系)(的)(震)(荡)(,平)(稳)(有)(序)(地)(完)(成)(金)(融)(市)(场)(化)(改)(革)(。他)(把)(利)(率)(、汇)(率)(改)(革)(和)(资)(本)(账)(户)(开)(放)(比)(作)(两)(条)(腿)(走)(路)(。不)(管)(是)(哪)(一)(条)(腿)(走)(在)(前)(面)(都)(没)(有)(关)(系)(,没)(有)(固)(定)(的)(顺)(序)(,先)(走)(左)(腿)(还)(是)(右)(腿)(,只)(要)(走)(得)(稳)(、走)(得)(协)(调)(都)(可)(以)(。
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