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“宝能系”杠杆风险有限

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月24日 06:25:03
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(关)(注)(,其)(事)(态)(发)(展)(亦)(不)(断)(进)(入)(新)(的)(阶)(段)(。如)(今)(,万)(科)(已)(停)(牌)(筹)(划)(可)(能)(的)(增)(发)(事)(项)(;除)(了)(万)(科)(董)(事)(局)(主)(席)(王)(石)(、总)(裁)(郁)(亮)(与)(“宝)(能)(系)(”的)(“口)(舌)(之)(争)(”以)(外)(,“宝)(能)(系)(”运)(用)(较)(高)(的)(杠)(杆)(在)(二)(级)(市)(场)(上)(狂)(扫)(万)(科)(股)(票)(,到)(底)(这)(蕴)(藏)(了)(多)(大)(的)(风)(险)(?王)(石)(和)(郁)(亮)(质)(疑)(“宝)(能)(系)(”的)(资)(金)(来)(源)(,不)(少)(市)(场)(人)(士)(甚)(至)(认)(为)(利)(用)(高)(杠)(杆)(拉)(抬)(万)(科)(股)(价)(存)(在)(巨)(大)(风)(险)(。
  不)(过)(,担)(忧)(或)(许)(杞)(人)(忧)(天)(了)(。当)(前)(万)(科)(的)(股)(本)(回)(报)(率)(依)(然)(维)(持)(在)(20%左)(右)(,而)(“宝)(能)(系)(”增)(持)(万)(科)(筹)(集)(的)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(,就)(公)(开)(资)(料)(来)(看)(,资)(金)(成)(本)(基)(本)(上)(都)(在)(8%到)(10%之)(间)(,实)(际)(上)(风)(险)(极)(其)(有)(限)(,“宝)(能)(系)(”增)(持)(万)(科)(,成)(为)(了)(“低)(利)(率)(”和)(“资)(产)(配)(置)(慌)(”时)(期)(之)(下)(杠)(杆)(投)(资)(的)(典)(范)(案)(例)(;对)(普)(通)(投)(资)(者)(而)(言)(,万)(科)(已)(经)(被)(炒)(高)(并)(停)(牌)(,如)(何)(寻)(找)(下)(一)(个)(万)(科)(和)(保)(险)(资)(金)(投)(资)(目)(标)(,成)(为)(了)(“当)(务)(之)(急)(”。
  资)(金)(成)(本)(10%与)(20%股)(本)(回)(报)(率)(
  一)(位)(购)(买)(了)(前)(海)(盛)(世)(财)(富)(终)(身)(寿)(险)((万)(能)(型)()的)(投)(资)(者)(告)(诉)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》,产)(品)(的)(预)(期)(收)(益)(率)(5.3%,而)(这)(些)(钱)(正)(是)(“宝)(能)(系)(”投)(资)(万)(科)(的)(重)(要)(资)(金)(来)(源)(。在)(前)(海)(人)(寿)(披)(露)(的)(万)(能)(险)(等)(各)(种)(产)(品)(当)(中)(,收)(益)(率)(在)(5%~6%左)(右)(,加)(上)(其)(他)(推)(广)(销)(售)(行)(政)(等)(费)(用)(,估)(计)(资)(金)(成)(本)(在)(8%~10%之)(间)(;而)(其)(余)(收)(益)(互)(换)(、融)(资)(融)(券)(等)(方)(式)(资)(金)(成)(本)(也)(不)(会)(超)(过)(10%。
  此)(前)(钜)(盛)(华)(对)(深)(交)(所)(的)(回)(复)(函)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(2015年)(12月)(4日)(,钜)(盛)(华)(通)(过)(7个)(资)(管)(计)(划)(共)(计)(买)(入)(万)(科)(占)(比)(4.97%的)(股)(份)(,一)(举)(夺)(下)(万)(科)(第)(一)(大)(股)(东)(的)(位)(置)(。这)(些)(资)(管)(计)(划)(存)(续)(期)(为)(2年)(或)(者)(3年)(;不)(过)(,此)(次)(回)(复)(函)(中)(并)(没)(有)(透)(露)(优)(先)(级)(委)(托)(人)(的)(身)(份)(和)(性)(质)(,但)(据)(市)(场)(人)(士)(表)(示)(,优)(先)(级)(委)(托)(人)(通)(常)(都)(是)(银)(行)(、保)(险)(这)(些)(成)(本)(较)(低)(的)(资)(金)(来)(源)(。
  万)(科)(2015年)(三)(季)(报)(显)(示)(,前)(三)(季)(度)(加)(权)(平)(均)(净)(资)(产)(收)(益)(率)(是)(7.69%,比)(上)(年)(同)(期)(下)(滑)(0.59个)(百)(分)(点)(,没)(有)(很)(明)(显)(的)(变)(化)(,在)(近)(两)(年)(房)(地)(产)(不)(景)(气)(下)(算)(是)(比)(较)(难)(得)(;而)(2011年)(到)(2014年)(的)(年)(度)(净)(资)(产)(收)(益)(率)(都)(在)(20%左)(右)(,都)(在)(19%到)(21.5%之)(间)(波)(动)(,只)(要)(未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(没)(有)(大)(面)(积)(崩)(盘)(,万)(科)(年)(度)(净)(资)(产)(收)(益)(率)(维)(持)(在)(20%左)(右)(是)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(。
  就)(停)(牌)(前)(A股)(的)(收)(盘)(价)(24.43元)(来)(看)(,Wind资)(讯)(统)(计)(显)(示)(,2015年)(预)(测)(市)(盈)(率)(14.8倍)(,市)(净)(率)(3.04倍)(;无)(论)(用)(哪)(一)(种)(估)(值)(模)(型)(计)(算)(的)(话)(,这)(种)(估)(值)(都)(无)(法)(说)(是)(偏)(高)(,何)(况)(市)(场)(利)(率)(还)(在)(不)(断)(下)(降)(。
  纵)(观)(A股)(历)(史)(上)(的)(大)(牛)(股)(,能)(够)(成)(就)(价)(值)(投)(资)(神)(话)(的)(贵)(州)(茅)(台)(、格)(力)(电)(器)(等)(公)(司)(,能)(够)(维)(持)(年)(化)(30%左)(右)(的)(股)(本)(回)(报)(率)(是)(关)(键)(所)(在)(,尽)(管)(万)(科)(复)(权)(价)(到)(近)(日)(才)(超)(越)(2007年)(的)(高)(位)(,但)(这)(只)(证)(明)(了)(价)(值)(只)(会)(迟)(到)(,从)(不)(会)(缺)(席)(,何)(况)(这)(是)(一)(家)(ROE可)(以)(稳)(定)(在)(20%左)(右)(的)(公)(司)(。就)(算)(退)(一)(步)(说)(,未)(来)(万)(科)(ROE可)(能)(逐)(步)(下)(降)(到)(15%,这)(对)(于)(10%不)(到)(的)(资)(金)(成)(本)(,从)(长)(计)(议)(的)(话)(,大)(概)(率)(依)(然)(可)(以)(成)(为)(稳)(赚)(的)(买)(卖)(。
  万)(科)(不)(是)(“有)(毒)(资)(产)(”
  在)(质)(疑)(“宝)(能)(系)(”资)(金)(来)(源)(的)(声)(音)(当)(中)(,杠)(杆)(期)(限)(错)(配)(而)(导)(致)(潜)(在)(的)(崩)(盘)(,是)(市)(场)(人)(士)(认)(为)(风)(险)(极)(大)(的)(原)(因)(之)(一)(,上)(半)(年)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(造)(成)(牛)(市)(之)(后)(,去)(杠)(杆)(引)(发)(的)(暴)(跌)(也)(让)(不)(少)(人)(士)(担)(忧)(万)(科)(可)(能)(重)(演)(;但)(这)(看)(来)(似)(乎)(也)(是)(杞)(人)(忧)(天)(,期)(限)(错)(配)(而)(造)(就)(高)(收)(益)(本)(来)(就)(是)(金)(融)(行)(业)(创)(造)(利)(润)(的)(方)(式)(之)(一)(,只)(要)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(足)(够)(好)(,就)(不)(存)(在)(问)(题)(;而)(万)(科)(跟)(上)(半)(年)(高)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(买)(入)(大)(量)(的)(高)(估)(值)(有)(毒)(资)(产)(更)(完)(全)(是)(两)(回)(事)(。
  比)(如)(我)(们)(存)(在)(银)(行)(的)(存)(款)(,期)(限)(从)(0~5年)(不)(等)(,而)(银)(行)(用)(来)(放)(贷)(给)(购)(房)(者)(,期)(限)(可)(以)(长)(达)(30年)(,对)(银)(行)(来)(说)(其)(实)(也)(是)(一)(种)(期)(限)(错)(配)(的)(投)(资)(;而)(在)(融)(资)(租)(赁)(行)(业)(,利)(用)(低)(成)(本)(中)(短)(期)(资)(金)(,来)(做)(中)(长)(期)(租)(赁)(项)(目)(,也)(是)(很)(常)(见)(的)(事)(情)(;对)(于)(金)(融)(机)(构)(来)(说)(只)(要)(流)(动)(性)(管)(理)(好)(就)(可)(以)(获)(得)(丰)(厚)(利)(润)(。
  既)(然)(万)(科)(是)(优)(质)(资)(产)(,就)(算)(有)(产)(品)(到)(期)(,投)(资)(者)(可)(能)(赎)(回)(,“宝)(能)(系)(”还)(怕)(筹)(不)(到)(钱)(借)(新)(还)(旧)(?最)(近)(P2P行)(业)(出)(了)(这)(么)(多)(无)(法)(兑)(付)(而)(“跑)(路)(”的)(事)(,而)(从)(宏)(观)(环)(境)(来)(看)(又)(陷)(入)(了)(“资)(产)(配)(置)(慌)(”,投)(资)(者)(手)(里)(的)(钱)(借)(给)(“宝)(能)(系)(”买)(万)(科)(,至)(少)(可)(以)(知)(道)(钱)(去)(哪)(里)(了)(。
  根)(据)(披)(露)(的)(最)(近)(半)(年)(钜)(盛)(华)(及)(前)(海)(人)(寿)(的)(万)(科)(买)(入)(情)(况)(来)(粗)(略)(推)(算)(,所)(有)(“宝)(能)(系)(”持)(有)(的)(万)(科)(股)(份)(平)(均)(成)(本)(在)(15元)(左)(右)(,而)(此)(次)(7个)(资)(管)(计)(划)(的)(购)(买)(简)(单)(平)(均)(价)(格)(在)(16.3~19.6元)(之)(间)(,其)(中)(购)(买)(均)(价)(最)(高)(的)(西)(部)(利)(得)(宝)(禄)(1号)(为)(19.6元)(左)(右)(,即)(下)(跌)(至)(15.7元)(左)(右)(,即)(将)(触)(及)(该)(产)(品)(平)(仓)(线)(。
  6月)(到)(8月)(市)(场)(暴)(跌)(期)(间)(万)(科)(的)(股)(价)(最)(大)(跌)(幅)(只)(有)(20%,可)(见)(其)(股)(价)(具)(备)(抗)(跌)(性)(,这)(与)(三)(季)(度)(暴)(跌)(前)(大)(量)(高)(杠)(杆)(资)(金)(持)(有)(高)(估)(值)(“有)(毒)(资)(产)(”完)(全)(不)(可)(同)(日)(而)(语)(。现)(在)(万)(科)(的)(筹)(码)(又)(高)(度)(集)(中)(在)(“宝)(能)(系)(”、华)(润)(集)(团)(、安)(邦)(保)(险)(手)(中)(,既)(然)(“宝)(能)(系)(”和)(安)(邦)(砸)(盘)(可)(能)(性)(极)(低)(,那)(么)(如)(果)(华)(润)(集)(团)(自)(己)(砸)(盘)(的)(话)(,等)(于)(让)(出)(筹)(码)(给)(“宝)(能)(系)(”,可)(能)(性)(也)(不)(是)(很)(大)(。
  此)(外)(,“宝)(能)(系)(”在)(深)(圳)(拥)(有)(大)(量)(土)(地)(储)(备)(,过)(去)(一)(年)(深)(圳)(房)(价)(暴)(涨)(,这)(也)(让)(“宝)(能)(系)(”未)(来)(的)(账)(面)(资)(产)(值)(大)(大)(增)(加)(,这)(无)(疑)(也)(让)(“宝)(能)(系)(”日)(后)(继)(续)(增)(持)(万)(科)(变)(得)(更)(有)(底)(气)(。
  寻)(找)(下)(一)(个)(万)(科)(
  证)(监)(会)(已)(经)(回)(应)(万)(科)(股)(权)(之)(争)(称)(,市)(场)(主)(体)(之)(间)(收)(购)(、被)(收)(购)(的)(行)(为)(属)(于)(市)(场)(化)(行)(为)(,只)(要)(符)(合)(相)(关)(法)(律)(法)(规)(的)(要)(求)(,监)(管)(部)(门)(不)(会)(干)(涉)(。
  不)(过)(话)(说)(回)(来)(,尽)(管)(证)(监)(会)(已)(经)(表)(明)(不)(会)(干)(涉)(,但)(现)(在)(“宝)(能)(系)(”的)(风)(险)(不)(是)(没)(有)(,一)(旦)(监)(管)(层)(认)(定)(“宝)(能)(系)(”有)(操)(纵)(股)(价)(的)(嫌)(疑)(,并)(且)(强)(迫)(“宝)(能)(系)(”去)(杠)(杆)(,“宝)(能)(系)(”完)(全)(可)(以)(通)(过)(大)(宗)(交)(易)(转)(让)(万)(科)(股)(权)(,降)(低)(对)(二)(级)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(,“资)(产)(配)(置)(慌)(”大)(背)(景)(下)(万)(科)(的)(股)(权)(也)(不)(愁)(没)(有)(接)(盘)(者)(;而)(从)(管)(理)(层)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,一)(直)(希)(望)(可)(以)(倡)(导)(价)(值)(投)(资)(,这)(次)(万)(科)(股)(价)(暴)(涨)(有)(相)(当)(部)(分)(价)(值)(回)(归)(的)(味)(道)(,并)(且)(引)(导)(资)(金)(往)(蓝)(筹)(股)(集)(中)(,这)(本)(来)(就)(可)(以)(让)(市)(场)(更)(健)(康)(。
  “资)(产)(配)(置)(慌)(”依)(然)(持)(续)(,随)(着)(央)(行)(多)(次)(降)(息)(降)(准)(后)(,固)(定)(收)(益)(利)(率)(不)(断)(下)(滑)(,尤)(其)(对)(保)(险)(资)(金)(而)(言)(,涌)(向)(股)(权)(投)(资)(是)(不)(可)(逆)(转)(的)(大)(趋)(势)(;而)(对)(普)(通)(投)(资)(者)(来)(说)(,除)(了)(抱)(着)(看)(戏)(的)(心)(态)(以)(外)(,如)(何)(寻)(找)(下)(一)(个)(万)(科)(,是)(当)(务)(之)(急)(;目)(前)(场)(内)(融)(资)(利)(率)(只)(有)(8.35%,也)(远)(低)(于)(部)(分)(蓝)(筹)(股)(的)(净)(资)(产)(收)(益)(率)(,高)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(投)(资)(者)(通)(过)(融)(资)(买)(入)(蓝)(筹)(长)(期)(持)(有)(未)(尝)(不)(可)(。
  目)(前)(来)(看)(,举)(牌)(较)(多)(的)(保)(险)(公)(司)(,一)(般)(是)(万)(能)(险)(销)(售)(较)(多)(的)(公)(司)(,而)(这)(些)(公)(司)(也)(有)(动)(力)(继)(续)(增)(持)(低)(估)(值)(高)(分)(红)(的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(;已)(经)(被)(险)(资)(举)(牌)(的)(公)(司)(,或)(者)(即)(将)(被)(举)(牌)(的)(,都)(可)(能)(成)(为)(险)(资)(的)(猎)(食)(对)(象)(。平)(安)(证)(券)(非)(银)(团)(队)(就)(称)(,股)(票)(具)(备)(流)(动)(性)(特)(征)(,尤)(其)(是)(大)(市)(值)(蓝)(筹)(股)(,变)(现)(速)(度)(较)(快)(,变)(现)(成)(本)(较)(低)(;因)(此)(2014年)(以)(来)(保)(险)(公)(司)(往)(往)(通)(过)(加)(大)(配)(置)(蓝)(筹)(股)(来)(替)(代)(以)(往)(大)(量)(配)(置)(非)(标)(资)(产)(的)(状)(况)(。
  某)(知)(名)(险)(资)(投)(资)(经)(理)(亦)(对)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》称)(,目)(前)(一)(些)(大)(股)(东)(持)(股)(比)(例)(不)(高)(,估)(值)(较)(低)(,经)(营)(现)(金)(流)(比)(较)(稳)(定)(,甚)(至)(已)(经)(被)(险)(资)(举)(牌)(的)(公)(司)(,依)(然)(可)(能)(成)(为)(险)(资)(继)(续)(猎)(食)(的)(对)(象)(,投)(资)(者)(可)(以)(继)(续)(关)(注)(;而)(保)(险)(资)(管)(为)(了)(提)(高)(偿)(付)(能)(力)(,也)(会)(希)(望)(自)(身)(持)(股)(市)(值)(增)(加)(,在)(年)(底)(有)(一)(定)(拉)(高)(自)(身)(持)(股)(股)(价)(的)(动)(力)(。
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